Japan Real GDP Growth in Q3 2026?
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
Japan's official national statistics agency publishes the deciding data in its official quarterly GDP release, and the deciding value is real GDP growth for Q3 2026, measured as the plain quarter-over-quarter percent change, not an annualized rate. The outcome is Yes if that value exceeds the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the initial figure from the flash, preliminary or first release counts, later revisions do not affect the outcome, and early resolution does not apply. If the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Real GDP is the inflation-adjusted value of the final goods and services an economy produces. The event is the real GDP growth of Japan for Q3 2026, measured as the quarter-over-quarter change.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Japan Real GDP Growth in Q3 2026” market ask?
Japan Real GDP Growth in Q3 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above -2.0%” pays $1 if the result is above -2.0%, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 9 thresholds, from “Above -2.0%” to “Above 2.0%”.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Japan Real GDP Growth in Q3 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Nov 15, 2026, 6:50 pm ET, and payout is projected for Nov 15, 2026, 8:50 pm ET.
How does “Japan Real GDP Growth in Q3 2026” resolve, and from which source?
Japan's official national statistics agency publishes the deciding data in its official quarterly GDP release, and the deciding value is real GDP growth for Q3 2026, measured as the plain quarter-over-quarter percent change, not an annualized rate. The outcome is Yes if that value exceeds the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the initial figure from the flash, preliminary or first release counts, later revisions do not affect the outcome, and early resolution does not apply. If the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is Cabinet Office of Japan.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Japan Real GDP Growth in Q3 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
