As of Nov 15, 2026, 1:44 pm ET, Lumina’s “Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026” market prices Nithya Raman at 99% and Karen Bass at 23%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk publishes the official results for the Los Angeles mayoral race, and those results decide the outcome. The outcome is Yes if the candidate named in the market question is elected mayor. The outcome can be decided before official certification if one or more of The Associated Press, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have called the race for the same candidate, all of those calls agree, and no recount, legal challenge or other official proceeding that could affect the result is ongoing or formally announced. Otherwise it stays open until those conditions are met or until the results are officially certified. The candidate determined to have won counts as the winner whether or not they take office. If a candidate formally withdraws, misses the filing deadline or publicly confirms they are no longer seeking the office at least 14 days before the election, the outcome for that candidate may be decided as No at the exchange's discretion, and it does not change if they later re-enter or win. Resolution happens when the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk releases official results, and if that release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The mayor of Los Angeles is the city's chief executive, chosen by the city's voters. The event is the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral General Election, which decides who is elected mayor.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026” market ask?
Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026? The outcomes are Nithya Raman, Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What are the current odds for “Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026”?
As of Nov 15, 2026, 1:44 pm ET, Lumina’s “Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026” market prices Nithya Raman at 99% and Karen Bass at 23%.
How have the odds moved for “Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026”?
As of Nov 15, 2026, 1:44 pm ET, Nithya Raman is at 99%, up 39 points from the prior trading day’s close.
What does the price of Nithya Raman mean in the “Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026” market?
As of Nov 15, 2026, 1:44 pm ET, a Yes contract on Nithya Raman trades at 99¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 99¢ shows as 99%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026” market?
As of Nov 15, 2026, 1:44 pm ET, open interest is $163K.
When does trading close on “Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Dec 11, 2026, 3:00 pm ET, and payout is projected for Dec 11, 2026, 5:00 pm ET.
How does “Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk publishes the official results for the Los Angeles mayoral race, and those results decide the outcome. The outcome is Yes if the candidate named in the market question is elected mayor. The outcome can be decided before official certification if one or more of The Associated Press, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have called the race for the same candidate, all of those calls agree, and no recount, legal challenge or other official proceeding that could affect the result is ongoing or formally announced. Otherwise it stays open until those conditions are met or until the results are officially certified. The candidate determined to have won counts as the winner whether or not they take office. If a candidate formally withdraws, misses the filing deadline or publicly confirms they are no longer seeking the office at least 14 days before the election, the outcome for that candidate may be decided as No at the exchange's discretion, and it does not change if they later re-enter or win. Resolution happens when the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk releases official results, and if that release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Los Angeles Mayoral General Election in 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
