Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
>$290k89%
>$300k87%
>$310k86%
>$330k83%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
>$290k
0%89%
>$300k
0%87%
>$310k
0%86%
>$330k
0%83%
>$320k
0%82%
>$340k
0%80%
>$350k
0%76%
>$360k
0%71%
>$370k
0%64%
>$380k
0%59%
>$390k
0%52%
>$410k
0%50%
>$400k
0%45%
>$420k
0%24%
>$440k
0%23%
>$430k
0%22%
>$450k
0%19%
>$460k
0%9%
>$470k
0%6%
>$480k
0%4%
>$490k
0%2%
Rules
The deciding value is the median sales price of new houses sold in the US, published by the US Census Bureau in the New Residential Sales report for December 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported median price is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when the Census Bureau publishes the report at 9:00 AM CT, typically on the 17th business day of the month after December 2026. Early resolution does not apply, and if the Census Bureau delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
The median price of newly built homes is the midpoint of their sale prices. The measure is the median sales price of new homes sold in the US during December 2026, the price at which half of sales were higher and half were lower.