The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its Climate at a Glance global average temperature anomaly series for land and ocean across all months. NOAA reports this anomaly against its 1901 to 2000 average, and the figure is adjusted to the 1850 to 1900 preindustrial baseline by an offset based on NOAA's reported 1850 to 1900 average, currently estimated at 0.18 degrees Celsius and subject to update if NOAA changes its methodology or historical record; if NOAA changes its methodology, the most current model is used. The outcome is Yes if any month through the end of 2040 has an adjusted value greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Early resolution applies, so the outcome can be decided at 10:00 AM CT when NOAA publishes a qualifying month; otherwise the value becomes final when NOAA publishes the data for December 2040, normally at 10:00 AM CT in the first half of the following month. If NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its Climate at a Glance global average temperature anomaly series for land and ocean across all months. NOAA reports this anomaly against its 1901 to 2000 average, and the figure is adjusted to the 1850 to 1900 preindustrial baseline by an offset based on NOAA's reported 1850 to 1900 average, currently estimated at 0.18 degrees Celsius and subject to update if NOAA changes its methodology or historical record; if NOAA changes its methodology, the most current model is used. The outcome is Yes if any month through the end of 2040 has an adjusted value greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Early resolution applies, so the outcome can be decided at 10:00 AM CT when NOAA publishes a qualifying month; otherwise the value becomes final when NOAA publishes the data for December 2040, normally at 10:00 AM CT in the first half of the following month. If NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.