Yes65%
No35%
Sep 20Sep 28Oct 5Oct 13Oct 20
100%75%50%25%0%

The outcome is decided by the one-year Loan Prime Rate decision that the People's Bank of China publishes in its Loan Prime Rate announcement through the National Interbank Funding Center on November 20, 2026, at about 9:00 AM China Standard Time. The change is measured in basis points against the rate in effect immediately before that announcement, and a decision that leaves the rate unchanged counts as no change. The outcome is Yes if the change matches the move specified in the market question, such as a hike of at least a given size, no change, or a cut, and No otherwise. The outcome is final when the decision is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
The one-year Loan Prime Rate is a policy interest rate that the People's Bank of China sets for China. The measure is the decision the People's Bank of China announces on the one-year Loan Prime Rate on November 20, 2026, expressed as the direction and size of any change from the level in effect just before it.