Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
>-1.5%98%
>-2.5%98%
>-0.5%96%
>0.5%95%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
>-1.5%
0%98%
>-2.5%
0%98%
>-0.5%
0%96%
>0.5%
0%95%
>1.5%
0%94%
>2.5%
0%90%
>3.5%
0%80%
>3.9%
0%22%
>4.3%
0%11%
>5.1%
0%9%
>5.5%
0%8%
>5.9%
0%5%
>4.7%
0%4%
Rules
The deciding value is the year-over-year percentage change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in Table 7, line 1 of the Personal Income and Outlays release for December 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the advance reading counts: the value becomes final when BEA publishes it at 7:30 AM CT, typically on the final Friday of the month, and the later revised and final readings do not change the outcome. Early resolution does not apply, and if BEA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
The PCE Price Index tracks the prices of goods and services purchased by, or on behalf of, US residents. The measure is the year-over-year percentage change in the index for December 2026.