Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:58 pm ET, Lumina’s “Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028” market prices Yes at 17%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The outcome is Yes if, by December 31, 2028, any portion of land internationally recognized as part of Canada becomes a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction under an agreement between the United States and the government of Canada to transfer sovereignty of that land to the United States, and No otherwise. This must be shown by consistent reporting from at least three of these outlets: the Associated Press, Reuters, Agence France-Presse, The New York Times, and The Washington Post, where each report is a publicly accessible article or official webpage on the outlet's own website explicitly stating that a portion of Canada has become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction. Temporary military occupation, de facto control without legal recognition, political statements or claims, referendums or declarations without formal legal ratification by both governments, and unratified treaties do not count. The outcome can resolve Yes early once this is confirmed; otherwise it is determined at 8:00 AM CT on the day after December 31, 2028. If the source delays publishing information needed for resolution, resolution waits until it is published.
About
A transfer of sovereignty moves legal authority over a territory from one government to another. The measure is whether any portion of land internationally recognized as part of Canada becomes a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction through a formally ratified agreement between the United States and the government of Canada to transfer sovereignty.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028” market ask?
Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028? It trades as one Yes/No contract: Yes pays $1 if the answer is yes, and No pays $1 if it is no.
What are the current odds for “Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:58 pm ET, Lumina’s “Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028” market prices Yes at 17%.
What does the Yes price mean in the “Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:58 pm ET, Yes trades at 17¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 17¢ shows as 17%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:58 pm ET, open interest is $109.
When does trading close on “Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Jan 1, 2029, 9:00 am ET, and payout is projected for Jan 1, 2029, 2:00 pm ET.
How does “Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028” resolve, and from which source?
The outcome is Yes if, by December 31, 2028, any portion of land internationally recognized as part of Canada becomes a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction under an agreement between the United States and the government of Canada to transfer sovereignty of that land to the United States, and No otherwise. This must be shown by consistent reporting from at least three of these outlets: the Associated Press, Reuters, Agence France-Presse, The New York Times, and The Washington Post, where each report is a publicly accessible article or official webpage on the outlet's own website explicitly stating that a portion of Canada has become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction. Temporary military occupation, de facto control without legal recognition, political statements or claims, referendums or declarations without formal legal ratification by both governments, and unratified treaties do not count. The outcome can resolve Yes early once this is confirmed; otherwise it is determined at 8:00 AM CT on the day after December 31, 2028. If the source delays publishing information needed for resolution, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is Associated Press.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028”?
Choose Yes or No and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
