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Yes65%
No35%
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Oct 1
100%75%50%25%0%
Privacy PolicyYour Privacy ChoicesTerms of UseLegalHelp Centerhello@luminamarkets.com

© 2026 Lumina Markets

Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028?
Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028?
Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028?
Politics•USA

Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028?

$0 Vol.

Chart

0.07%
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Oct 1
100%75%50%25%0%
Territorial SovereigntyCanadaCanada Us RelationsGeopoliticsUs

Outcomes

Y
Yes
$0 Vol.
No
$0 Vol.
N
7%0%
0%93%

Rules

The outcome is Yes if, by December 31, 2028, any portion of land internationally recognized as part of Canada becomes a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction under an agreement between the United States and the government of Canada to transfer sovereignty of that land to the United States, and No otherwise. This must be shown by consistent reporting from at least three of these outlets: the Associated Press, Reuters, Agence France-Presse, The New York Times, and The Washington Post, where each report is a publicly accessible article or official webpage on the outlet's own website explicitly stating that a portion of Canada has become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction. Temporary military occupation, de facto control without legal recognition, political statements or claims, referendums or declarations without formal legal ratification by both governments, and unratified treaties do not count. The outcome can resolve Yes early once this is confirmed; otherwise it is determined at 8:00 AM CT on the day after December 31, 2028. If the source delays publishing information needed for resolution, resolution waits until it is published.

Market rules (opens in new tab)

About

A transfer of sovereignty moves legal authority over a territory from one government to another. The measure is whether any portion of land internationally recognized as part of Canada becomes a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction through a formally ratified agreement between the United States and the government of Canada to transfer sovereignty.

Read full Terms and Conditions (opens in new tab)

Related

Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028?
Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028?
Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028?
Politics•USA

Sovereignty Transfer of Canada by December 31, 2028?

$0 Vol.

Chart

0.07%
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Oct 1
100%75%50%25%0%
Territorial SovereigntyCanadaCanada Us RelationsGeopoliticsUs

Outcomes

Y
Yes
$0 Vol.
No
$0 Vol.
N
7%0%
0%93%

Rules

The outcome is Yes if, by December 31, 2028, any portion of land internationally recognized as part of Canada becomes a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction under an agreement between the United States and the government of Canada to transfer sovereignty of that land to the United States, and No otherwise. This must be shown by consistent reporting from at least three of these outlets: the Associated Press, Reuters, Agence France-Presse, The New York Times, and The Washington Post, where each report is a publicly accessible article or official webpage on the outlet's own website explicitly stating that a portion of Canada has become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction. Temporary military occupation, de facto control without legal recognition, political statements or claims, referendums or declarations without formal legal ratification by both governments, and unratified treaties do not count. The outcome can resolve Yes early once this is confirmed; otherwise it is determined at 8:00 AM CT on the day after December 31, 2028. If the source delays publishing information needed for resolution, resolution waits until it is published.

Market rules (opens in new tab)

About

A transfer of sovereignty moves legal authority over a territory from one government to another. The measure is whether any portion of land internationally recognized as part of Canada becomes a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction through a formally ratified agreement between the United States and the government of Canada to transfer sovereignty.

Read full Terms and Conditions (opens in new tab)

Related