Yes65%
No35%
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Oct 1
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 77.40%
Above 780%
Above 78.60%
Above 79.20%
Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Oct 1
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 77.4
0%0%
Above 78
0%0%
Above 78.6
0%0%
Above 79.2
0%0%
Above 79.8
0%0%
Above 80.4
0%0%
Above 81
0%0%
Above 81.6
0%0%
Above 82.2
0%0%
Rules
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) publishes the deciding data in its Airline Traffic Data release. The deciding value is the seasonally adjusted number of total US airline passengers (enplanements) for October 2026, using only the initial release value. The outcome is Yes if it exceeds the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BTS publishes that month's data at 10:00 AM CT, typically in the second week of the third month after October 2026, and early resolution does not apply. If BTS delays the release, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Airline passenger counts measure enplanements, the number of passengers who board flights operated by US airlines. The event is the seasonally adjusted number of total airline passengers in the US over a calendar month, measured in millions.