Yes65%
No35%
Sep 27Oct 5Oct 12Oct 20Oct 27
100%75%50%25%0%
The deciding value is the percentage of total US land area in drought published by the US Drought Monitor, a joint effort of the National Drought Mitigation Center, the US Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Monitor publishes every Thursday at 7:30 AM CT, and each release covers the week ending the preceding Tuesday. The outcome is Yes if the reported percentage in the release covering November 10, 2026 is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final at 7:30 AM CT when the US Drought Monitor publishes the weekly data covering November 10, 2026, and the outcome can resolve early if it becomes determinable. If the US Drought Monitor delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
Drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall that leads to water shortages. The measure is the percentage of total US land area experiencing drought conditions as of November 10, 2026.