Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 3896%
Above 4094%
Above 4293%
Above 4488%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 38
2%96%
Above 40
0%94%
Above 42
0%93%
Above 44
0%88%
Above 46
0%81%
Above 48
0%51%
Above 50
0%31%
Above 54
0%21%
Above 52
0%16%
Above 56
0%1%
Above 58
0%1%
Above 60
0%1%
Above 62
0%1%
Above 64
0%1%
Above 66
0%1%
Above 68
0%1%
Rules
The deciding value is the Index of Consumer Sentiment in the University of Michigan's monthly Final Results report for December 2026; the preliminary reading does not count. The outcome is Yes if the final index is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when the University of Michigan publishes the Final Results at 9:00 AM CT, typically on the last Friday of the month. Early resolution does not apply, and if the University of Michigan delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
Consumer sentiment is a measure of how US households view their finances and the economy. The index is built from surveys of random samples of US households, and the event is its reading for December 2026.