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Tornado Reports in the US in January 2027?

Chart

Above 5—
Above 10—
Above 15—
Above 20—
Oct 12Oct 20Oct 27Nov 4Nov 11
100%75%50%25%0%

Outcomes

Above 5
0%—
Above 10
0%—
Above 15
0%—
Above 20
0%—
Above 25
0%—
Above 30
0%—
Above 35
0%—

Rules

The deciding value is the number of tornado storm reports in the US during January 2027, as reported by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in its Preliminary Report Summary totals for that period (Month Totals for the US, State Totals for a state). Only the first preliminary count published right after the period ends is used, and later revisions, quality-control updates, or retrospective changes do not change the outcome. The outcome is Yes if the number of reports is greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome is determined at 9:00 AM CT on the day after January 2027 ends, and it can resolve early once it becomes determinable. If NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

About

Storm reports are preliminary records of severe weather events, such as tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail, logged as they are reported. The measure is the number of tornado storm reports in the US during January 2027.

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