Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 4289%
Above 4470%
Above 4562%
Above 4644%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 42
0%89%
Above 44
0%70%
Above 45
0%62%
Above 46
0%44%
Above 47
0%35%
Above 48
0%17%
Above 49
0%1%
Above 50
0%1%
Above 52
0%1%
Rules
The US Department of the Treasury publishes the deciding data in its Debt to the Penny dataset, and the deciding value is Total Public Debt Outstanding, in trillions of US dollars, for the last business day of federal fiscal year 2030; the federal fiscal year ends on the last day of September. The outcome is Yes if that total is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The Treasury posts each business day's figure on the following business day, and the value becomes final at 4:00 PM CT when it publishes the Debt to the Penny figure for the last business day of that fiscal year. Early resolution does not apply, and if the Treasury delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
The national debt is the total outstanding borrowing of the US federal government. It includes marketable and non-marketable securities, covering both debt held by the public and debt the government holds in its own accounts, known as intragovernmental debt. The measure is the total national debt at the end of federal fiscal year 2030, measured in trillions of US dollars.