Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 3,100,00098%
Above 3,150,00094%
Above 3,200,00093%
Above 3,250,00091%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 3,100,000
0%98%
Above 3,150,000
0%94%
Above 3,200,000
0%93%
Above 3,250,000
0%91%
Above 3,300,000
0%81%
Above 3,350,000
0%75%
Above 3,400,000
0%60%
Above 3,450,000
0%43%
Above 3,550,000
0%11%
Above 3,500,000
0%9%
Above 3,600,000
0%7%
Rules
The deciding value is US dry natural gas production, in million cubic feet, published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the US row of its dry natural gas production data for December 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported production is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final at 4:00 PM CT on the day EIA publishes the data, typically the last business day of a month. Early resolution does not apply, and if EIA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
Natural gas is a fossil fuel made up mostly of methane that is extracted from underground deposits. The measure is total US dry natural gas production for December 2026, expressed in million cubic feet.