Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 13,10096%
Above 12,90095%
Above 12,50095%
Above 13,30094%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 13,100
0%96%
Above 12,900
0%95%
Above 12,500
0%95%
Above 13,300
0%94%
Above 13,500
0%93%
Above 12,700
0%93%
Above 13,700
0%87%
Above 13,900$20 Vol.
2%80%
Above 14,100$60 Vol.
6%57%
Above 14,300
0%23%
Above 14,500
0%7%
Above 14,700
0%6%
Above 14,900
0%6%
Above 15,500
0%5%
Above 15,100
0%4%
Above 15,300
0%4%
Above 15,700
0%4%
Above 15,900
0%4%
Above 16,100
0%4%
Rules
The deciding value is US field production of crude oil, in thousands of barrels per day, published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its US Field Production of Crude Oil table for December 2026; EIA reports it as the daily average over the reference month. The outcome is Yes if the reported production is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final at 8:30 AM CT when EIA publishes the data, typically on the last business day of a month. Early resolution does not apply, and if EIA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
US crude oil production is the volume of crude oil extracted from wells in the United States. The measure is US field production of crude oil, the daily average produced over December 2026, expressed in thousands of barrels per day.