The outcome is decided by the third estimate (Final Reading) of quarter-over-quarter real GDP in the Gross Domestic Product release, published at 7:30 AM CT by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The outcome is Yes if that data shows two consecutive negative quarter-over-quarter readings by the end of Q4 2026, and No otherwise. Only the release named here counts. The outcome can resolve Yes early as soon as the second consecutive negative reading is published; otherwise it is determined when that release is published for Q4 2026, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.

The outcome is decided by the third estimate (Final Reading) of quarter-over-quarter real GDP in the Gross Domestic Product release, published at 7:30 AM CT by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The outcome is Yes if that data shows two consecutive negative quarter-over-quarter readings by the end of Q4 2026, and No otherwise. Only the release named here counts. The outcome can resolve Yes early as soon as the second consecutive negative reading is published; otherwise it is determined when that release is published for Q4 2026, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.