US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:23 pm ET, Lumina’s “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026” market prices "Above 16,600" at 79%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The outcome is decided by the seasonally adjusted monthly sales figure for Miscellaneous Store Retailers for December 2026, as published by the US Census Bureau in its Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release (the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report), in Table 1, Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business, column (a) of the Adjusted section. The outcome is Yes if that figure, in millions of dollars, is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the initial release counts, and later revisions do not change the outcome. The outcome is determined when the report is released at 7:30 AM CT on its scheduled date, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Retail sales are the dollar value of goods that retail businesses sell to consumers. The measure is total monthly US retail sales at Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026, in millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted to remove regular calendar and holiday patterns.
Questions and Answers
What does the “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026” market ask?
US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above 16,600” pays $1 if the result is above 16,600, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 14 thresholds, from “Above 14,200” to “Above 16,800”.
What are the current odds for “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:23 pm ET, Lumina’s “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026” market prices "Above 16,600" at 79%.
How have the odds moved for “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:23 pm ET, "Above 16,600" is at 79%, down 4 points from the prior trading day’s close.
Which range is most likely for “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:23 pm ET, the prices put the result above 16,400 but not above 16,600 at 13%, the most likely band on the ladder.
What does the price of "Above 16,600" mean in the “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:23 pm ET, a Yes contract on "Above 16,600" trades at 79¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 79¢ shows as 79%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 9:23 pm ET, open interest is $5.4K.
When does trading close on “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Jan 14, 2027, 8:30 am ET, and payout is projected for Jan 14, 2027, 10:30 am ET.
How does “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The outcome is decided by the seasonally adjusted monthly sales figure for Miscellaneous Store Retailers for December 2026, as published by the US Census Bureau in its Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release (the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report), in Table 1, Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business, column (a) of the Adjusted section. The outcome is Yes if that figure, in millions of dollars, is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the initial release counts, and later revisions do not change the outcome. The outcome is determined when the report is released at 7:30 AM CT on its scheduled date, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is US Census Bureau.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers in December 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
