As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 pm ET, Lumina’s “Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner” market prices Mark Pocan at 99% and Erik Olsen at 19%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
Resolution follows the results published by the election authority of the state holding the contest, and the winner is whoever is officially declared to have prevailed under that state's election law. Where a contest goes to a runoff, only the runoff winner resolves Yes - advancing to one does not. What happens if a candidate stops running depends on what the contract references: a contract on a political party follows that party's official nominee and transfers automatically to a replacement if the nominee withdraws, is disqualified, or stops seeking the office, while a contract on a named individual or on a party's primary winner resolves No in those circumstances. Settlement may occur before certification once major news organisations have consistently called the race, or once all votes are reported and the margin sits outside the statutory recount threshold, in each case only where no recount or legal challenge is outstanding. If the election is cancelled, replaced by a different process, or materially changed so the outcome cannot be determined, the contract resolves No.
About
The general election for Wisconsin 2nd District decides who will represent that district in the U.S. House of Representatives for the two-year term that begins January 3, 2027. Voters choose among the parties' nominees and any other candidates who qualify for the ballot, and the winner is whoever prevails under that state's election law.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner” market ask?
Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner? The outcomes are Mark Pocan and Erik Olsen, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What are the current odds for “Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 pm ET, Lumina’s “Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner” market prices Mark Pocan at 99% and Erik Olsen at 19%.
How have the odds moved for “Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 pm ET, Mark Pocan is at 99%, level with the prior trading day’s close.
What does the price of Mark Pocan mean in the “Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 pm ET, a Yes contract on Mark Pocan trades at 99¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 99¢ shows as 99%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 pm ET, open interest is $1.6K.
When does trading close on “Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Dec 1, 2026, 3:00 pm ET, and payout is projected for Dec 1, 2026, 5:00 pm ET.
How does “Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner” resolve, and from which source?
Resolution follows the results published by the election authority of the state holding the contest, and the winner is whoever is officially declared to have prevailed under that state's election law. Where a contest goes to a runoff, only the runoff winner resolves Yes - advancing to one does not. What happens if a candidate stops running depends on what the contract references: a contract on a political party follows that party's official nominee and transfers automatically to a replacement if the nominee withdraws, is disqualified, or stops seeking the office, while a contract on a named individual or on a party's primary winner resolves No in those circumstances. Settlement may occur before certification once major news organisations have consistently called the race, or once all votes are reported and the margin sits outside the statutory recount threshold, in each case only where no recount or legal challenge is outstanding. If the election is cancelled, replaced by a different process, or materially changed so the outcome cannot be determined, the contract resolves No. The resolution source is Wisconsin Elections Commission.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Wisconsin 2nd District House Winner”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
