Position
Updated November 10, 2026
A position is an open holding in an event contract: yes or no shares you still hold before settlement. On regulated prediction markets, position is the term for that exposure.
You open a position of 40 yes at 44¢ ($17.60 plus fees). That position stays open until you close it by buying the other side or the contract resolves. If you close half at 52¢, you reduce the position to 20 yes and realize profit on the 20 sold.
- Position opened at 44¢
- 40 yes
- $17.60 plus fees
- Price where you close half
- 52¢
- Profit realized on the 20 sold
- Position still open until it resolves
- 20 yes
Realized and unrealized profit
Closing part of a position locks in the result on that part. In the example, the 20 contracts closed at 52¢ were bought at 44¢. With their share of the opening fee and commission they cost $9.0308. The sale brings in $10.40, less its own $0.20 exchange fee and $0.0336 commission, since closing buys 20 no at 48¢. The realized profit is $1.1356 after fees.
The 20 still open have no fixed result yet. They cost $9.0308 (20 × 44¢, plus $0.20 in exchange fees and $0.0308 commission), and their value on screen moves with the quote: at 52¢ they would be marked at $10.40. That figure is unrealized. Closing them now would fill at the bid, which may sit below the quoted price, and holding them to settlement pays either $20.00 or nothing.
- Paid for the 20 still open
- $9.0308
- 20 × 44¢, plus $0.2308 in fee and commission
- Paid at settlement if they resolve yes
- $20.00
- Paid at settlement if they resolve no
- $0
- The $9.0308 is lost
What a position can gain or lose
A bought position has fixed limits. The most it can pay is $1 per contract at settlement, and the most it can lose, held to settlement, is what you paid plus fees. On the original 40 contracts that’s $17.60, plus $0.40 in exchange fees ($0.01 per contract) and $0.0616 in Lumina’s 0.35% commission on trade value. Statements and confirmations show it rounded to the cent.
Holding no is a position too. Buying no is how you take the view that an outcome won’t happen, and the same limits apply: $1 per contract if the outcome doesn’t occur, $0 if it does. The expected value of either side depends on the price you pay against your own estimate of the probability, and the settlement terms decide which side is paid; see resolution / settlement.
FAQ
What is an open position?
Contracts you hold that haven’t been closed or settled yet. Their value moves with the market price until you close them or the contract resolves.
What is the most you can lose on a position?
On a bought position held to settlement, what you paid plus fees. A contract that resolves against you pays $0, so the loss stops at its purchase price and fees.
What is the difference between realized and unrealized profit?
Realized profit comes from contracts you’ve already closed or that have settled. Unrealized profit is the paper gain or loss on contracts still open, based on the current price.