Yes65%
No35%
Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above 0.0%75%
Above 1.0%67%
Above 2.0%58%
Above 3.0%34%
Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above 0.0%$50 Vol.
0%75%
Above 1.0%$50 Vol.
0%67%
Above 2.0%$60 Vol.
0%58%
Above 3.0%
0%34%
Above 4.0%
0%25%
Above 5.0%
0%15%
Above 6.0%
0%4%
Above 7.0%
0%1%
Above 8.0%
0%1%
Above 9.0%
0%1%
Above 10.0%
0%1%
Above -1.0%
0%0%
Rules
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the deciding value in the “Table SQGDP1. Quarterly GDP by State – Percent Change at Annual Rates From Preceding Period” report for California and the relevant quarter. For each listed threshold, the outcome is Yes if the report's corresponding percentage change in Real GDP is exceeds the value specified in the market question, and No otherwise. The value becomes final on December 23, 2026, when the report is released, subject to any changes or review permitted under the contract terms.
About
Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy. California's quarterly GDP growth is the quarter-over-quarter percentage change in GDP for California, and each outcome depends on whether that growth exceeds the percentage value specified in the market question for Q3 2026.