The deciding value is the annualized growth rate in US real GDP from the third estimate, the final reading published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for Q4 2026; the advance and second estimates do not count. The outcome is Yes if the reported growth rate is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BEA publishes the third estimate at 7:30 AM CT, typically on the last Thursday of March, June, September, or December. Early resolution does not apply, and if BEA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.

The deciding value is the annualized growth rate in US real GDP from the third estimate, the final reading published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for Q4 2026; the advance and second estimates do not count. The outcome is Yes if the reported growth rate is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BEA publishes the third estimate at 7:30 AM CT, typically on the last Thursday of March, June, September, or December. Early resolution does not apply, and if BEA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.