Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The deciding value is the headline month-over-month percentage change in the New Housing Price Index for Canada, released by Statistics Canada for October 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when Statistics Canada publishes the index at 7:30 AM CT, typically in the third week of the month after October 2026. Early resolution does not apply, and if Statistics Canada delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
The New Housing Price Index tracks changes in the prices of new homes in Canada. The event is its month-over-month percentage change for October 2026.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Canada New Housing Price Index Change in October 2026” market ask?
Canada New Housing Price Index Change in October 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above -1.0%” pays $1 if the result is above -1.0%, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 7 thresholds, from “Above -1.0%” to “Above 0.2%”.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Canada New Housing Price Index Change in October 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Nov 18, 2026, 8:30 am ET, and payout is projected for Nov 18, 2026, 10:30 am ET.
How does “Canada New Housing Price Index Change in October 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The deciding value is the headline month-over-month percentage change in the New Housing Price Index for Canada, released by Statistics Canada for October 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when Statistics Canada publishes the index at 7:30 AM CT, typically in the third week of the month after October 2026. Early resolution does not apply, and if Statistics Canada delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published. The resolution source is Statistics Canada.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Canada New Housing Price Index Change in October 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
