Fed Rate Decision in December 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 8:31 am ET, Lumina’s “Fed Rate Decision in December 2026” market prices Hike 25 Bps at 94% and Hike ≥50 Bps at 11%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The outcome is decided by the federal funds target range decision that the Federal Reserve publishes in its statement at 1:00 PM CT at the conclusion of the scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December 2026, as recorded in the Federal Reserve's official table of target range changes. The change is measured in basis points against the range in effect immediately before that announcement, and a decision that leaves the range unchanged counts as no change. The outcome is Yes if the change matches the move specified in the market question, such as a hike of at least a given size, no change, or a cut, and No otherwise. The outcome is final when the decision is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The federal funds target range is a policy interest rate range that the Federal Reserve sets for the US. The measure is the decision the Federal Reserve announces on the federal funds target range at its scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December 2026, expressed as the direction and size of any change from the level in effect just before it.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Fed Rate Decision in December 2026” market ask?
Fed Rate Decision in December 2026? The leaders are Hike 25 Bps, Hike ≥50 Bps and No Change, among 5 outcomes, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What are the current odds for “Fed Rate Decision in December 2026”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 8:31 am ET, Lumina’s “Fed Rate Decision in December 2026” market prices Hike 25 Bps at 94% and Hike ≥50 Bps at 11%.
How have the odds moved for “Fed Rate Decision in December 2026”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 8:31 am ET, Hike 25 Bps is at 94%, up 7 points from the prior trading day’s close.
What does the price of Hike 25 Bps mean in the “Fed Rate Decision in December 2026” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 8:31 am ET, a Yes contract on Hike 25 Bps trades at 94¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 94¢ shows as 94%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “Fed Rate Decision in December 2026” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 8:31 am ET, open interest is $154K, and $12K has traded in the current session.
When does trading close on “Fed Rate Decision in December 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Dec 9, 2026, 2:00 pm ET, and payout is projected for Dec 9, 2026, 4:00 pm ET.
How does “Fed Rate Decision in December 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The outcome is decided by the federal funds target range decision that the Federal Reserve publishes in its statement at 1:00 PM CT at the conclusion of the scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December 2026, as recorded in the Federal Reserve's official table of target range changes. The change is measured in basis points against the range in effect immediately before that announcement, and a decision that leaves the range unchanged counts as no change. The outcome is Yes if the change matches the move specified in the market question, such as a hike of at least a given size, no change, or a cut, and No otherwise. The outcome is final when the decision is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is US Federal Reserve.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Fed Rate Decision in December 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
