Strait of Hormuz Return to Normal Before April 1, 2027?
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
IMF PortWatch publishes the deciding data in its Port Monitor, updated each Tuesday at 8:00 AM CT, and the value used is the 7-day Moving Average of daily vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz in the exported Arrival of Ships data. The outcome is Yes if the 7-day moving average for any day after April 1, 2026 and before April 1, 2027 is greater than the normal traffic level of 60 ships, and No otherwise. The outcome may be determined early once a Port Monitor update shows a qualifying day, and otherwise becomes final at 8:00 AM CT when IMF PortWatch updates the Port Monitor after April 1, 2027. If the Port Monitor update is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. The measure is whether traffic through the Strait returns to normal, meaning the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls rises above a fixed normal level of 60 ships, before April 1, 2027.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Strait of Hormuz Return to Normal Before April 1, 2027” market ask?
Strait of Hormuz Return to Normal Before April 1, 2027? It trades as one Yes/No contract: Yes pays $1 if the answer is yes, and No pays $1 if it is no.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Strait of Hormuz Return to Normal Before April 1, 2027”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Apr 6, 2027, 9:00 am ET, and payout is projected for Apr 6, 2027, 11:00 am ET.
How does “Strait of Hormuz Return to Normal Before April 1, 2027” resolve, and from which source?
IMF PortWatch publishes the deciding data in its Port Monitor, updated each Tuesday at 8:00 AM CT, and the value used is the 7-day Moving Average of daily vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz in the exported Arrival of Ships data. The outcome is Yes if the 7-day moving average for any day after April 1, 2026 and before April 1, 2027 is greater than the normal traffic level of 60 ships, and No otherwise. The outcome may be determined early once a Port Monitor update shows a qualifying day, and otherwise becomes final at 8:00 AM CT when IMF PortWatch updates the Port Monitor after April 1, 2027. If the Port Monitor update is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is IMF Portwatch.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Strait of Hormuz Return to Normal Before April 1, 2027”?
Choose Yes or No and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
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What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
