As of Nov 13, 2026, 8:48 am ET, Lumina’s “Louisiana Senate Winner” market prices Julia Letlow at 99% and Bill Cassidy at 5%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
Resolution follows the results published by the Louisiana state election authority, and the winner is whoever is officially declared to have prevailed under that state's election law. Where a contest goes to a runoff, only the runoff winner resolves Yes - advancing to one does not. What happens if a candidate stops running depends on what the contract references: a contract on a political party follows that party's official nominee and transfers automatically to a replacement if the nominee withdraws, is disqualified, or stops seeking the office, while a contract on a named individual or on a party's primary winner resolves No in those circumstances. Settlement may occur before certification once major news organizations have consistently called the race, or once all votes are reported and the margin sits outside the statutory recount threshold, in each case only where no recount or legal challenge is outstanding. If the election is cancelled, replaced by a different process, or materially changed so the outcome cannot be determined, the contract resolves No.
About
The Louisiana senate general election decides which candidate holds one of the state's two senate seats for a six-year term. Voters choose among the parties' nominees and any other candidates who qualify for the ballot, and the winner is whoever prevails under Louisiana state election law.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Louisiana Senate Winner” market ask?
Louisiana Senate Winner? The outcomes are Julia Letlow, Bill Cassidy and Jamie Davis, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What are the current odds for “Louisiana Senate Winner”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 8:48 am ET, Lumina’s “Louisiana Senate Winner” market prices Julia Letlow at 99% and Bill Cassidy at 5%.
How have the odds moved for “Louisiana Senate Winner”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 8:48 am ET, Julia Letlow is at 99%, up 12 points from the prior trading day’s close.
What does the price of Julia Letlow mean in the “Louisiana Senate Winner” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 8:48 am ET, a Yes contract on Julia Letlow trades at 99¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 99¢ shows as 99%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “Louisiana Senate Winner” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 8:48 am ET, open interest is $15K.
When does trading close on “Louisiana Senate Winner”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Nov 17, 2026, 3:00 pm ET, and payout is projected for Nov 17, 2026, 5:00 pm ET.
How does “Louisiana Senate Winner” resolve, and from which source?
Resolution follows the results published by the Louisiana state election authority, and the winner is whoever is officially declared to have prevailed under that state's election law. Where a contest goes to a runoff, only the runoff winner resolves Yes - advancing to one does not. What happens if a candidate stops running depends on what the contract references: a contract on a political party follows that party's official nominee and transfers automatically to a replacement if the nominee withdraws, is disqualified, or stops seeking the office, while a contract on a named individual or on a party's primary winner resolves No in those circumstances. Settlement may occur before certification once major news organizations have consistently called the race, or once all votes are reported and the margin sits outside the statutory recount threshold, in each case only where no recount or legal challenge is outstanding. If the election is cancelled, replaced by a different process, or materially changed so the outcome cannot be determined, the contract resolves No. The resolution source is Louisiana Secretary of State Elections Division.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Louisiana Senate Winner”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
