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Outcomes
Rules
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its National Time Series of 1-month average temperature for the US. The deciding value is the reading for January 2027, expressed in degrees Fahrenheit. Only the Fahrenheit value counts, even where the market question also shows Celsius. The outcome is Yes if that value is greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when NOAA publishes the figure for January 2027, scheduled for 10:00 AM CT, and early resolution does not apply; if NOAA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
Average temperature is the mean temperature across an area over a period of time, reported either directly or as a difference from a long-term average. The event is the average temperature of the US in January 2027, expressed in degrees Fahrenheit.
