As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:06 pm ET, Lumina’s “US PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year Change in October 2026” market prices ">3.6%" at 66% and "Above 3.8%" at 40%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The deciding value is the year-over-year percentage change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in Table 7, line 1 of the Personal Income and Outlays release for October 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the advance reading counts: the value becomes final when BEA publishes it at 7:30 AM CT, typically on the final Friday of the month, and the later revised and final readings do not change the outcome. Early resolution does not apply, and if BEA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
The PCE Price Index tracks the prices of goods and services purchased by, or on behalf of, US residents. The measure is the year-over-year percentage change in the index for October 2026.
Questions and Answers
What does the “US PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year Change in October 2026” market ask?
US PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year Change in October 2026? It lists 8 outcomes, from “>1.2%” to “Above 3.8%”, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What are the current odds for “US PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year Change in October 2026”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:06 pm ET, Lumina’s “US PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year Change in October 2026” market prices ">3.6%" at 66% and "Above 3.8%" at 40%.
How have the odds moved for “US PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year Change in October 2026”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:06 pm ET, ">3.6%" is at 66%, level with the prior trading day’s close.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “US PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year Change in October 2026” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:06 pm ET, open interest is $2.1K.
When does trading close on “US PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year Change in October 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Nov 25, 2026, 8:30 am ET, and payout is projected for Nov 25, 2026, 10:30 am ET.
How does “US PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year Change in October 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The deciding value is the year-over-year percentage change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in Table 7, line 1 of the Personal Income and Outlays release for October 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Only the advance reading counts: the value becomes final when BEA publishes it at 7:30 AM CT, typically on the final Friday of the month, and the later revised and final readings do not change the outcome. Early resolution does not apply, and if BEA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published. The resolution source is U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “US PCE Price Index Year-Over-Year Change in October 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
