As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:00 pm ET, Lumina’s “Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026” market prices "At Least 50" at 5%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The United States Congress is the deciding source, and the deciding value is the number of Republican Party members listed for the US Senate in the current-members listings on Congress.gov on the first business day after January 3 of the year following the 2026 election, or after the convening date set by law if that differs. Seats held by independents and vacant seats do not count toward any party. The outcome is Yes if that seat count is at least the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome can be decided early, before official certification, if the Associated Press, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have each called every House and Senate race for the same candidate and no recount, legal challenge or other official proceeding that could affect the result is pending or announced; otherwise it stays open until those conditions are met or the results are officially certified, with resolution scheduled for 7:00 AM CT when Congress.gov publishes the member list after the new Congress convenes. If that member list is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The US Senate is one of the two chambers of Congress, and each of its seats is held by an elected member. The event is the number of Senate seats held by members of the Republican Party when the new Congress convenes after a general election.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026” market ask?
Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “At Least 50” pays $1 if the result is at least 50, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 9 thresholds, from “At Least 48” to “At Least 56”.
What are the current odds for “Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:00 pm ET, Lumina’s “Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026” market prices "At Least 50" at 5%.
How have the odds moved for “Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026”?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:00 pm ET, "At Least 50" is at 5%, down 17 points from the prior trading day’s close.
What does the price of "At Least 50" mean in the “Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:00 pm ET, a Yes contract on "At Least 50" trades at 5¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 5¢ shows as 5%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026” market?
As of Nov 14, 2026, 10:00 pm ET, open interest is $9K.
When does trading close on “Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Jan 3, 2027, 8:00 am ET, and payout is projected for Jan 3, 2027, 10:00 am ET.
How does “Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The United States Congress is the deciding source, and the deciding value is the number of Republican Party members listed for the US Senate in the current-members listings on Congress.gov on the first business day after January 3 of the year following the 2026 election, or after the convening date set by law if that differs. Seats held by independents and vacant seats do not count toward any party. The outcome is Yes if that seat count is at least the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome can be decided early, before official certification, if the Associated Press, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have each called every House and Senate race for the same candidate and no recount, legal challenge or other official proceeding that could affect the result is pending or announced; otherwise it stays open until those conditions are met or the results are officially certified, with resolution scheduled for 7:00 AM CT when Congress.gov publishes the member list after the new Congress convenes. If that member list is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is United States Congress.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Republican Seats in the Senate in 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
