Yes65%
No35%
Sep 14Sep 21Sep 29Oct 6Oct 14
100%75%50%25%0%
The United States Congress and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) publish the deciding data. The condition is decided first, solely by the final result of the US Senate Majority product (SENMA), which decides which party wins majority control of the US Senate in the 2026 general election as reported by the United States Congress, and it is met if the party specified in the market question wins that majority. If the condition is met, positions continue automatically and the outcome is decided by the CME daily settlement price of the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract month specified in the market question, on the date specified in the market question: Yes if that settlement price is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when CME's final daily settlement bulletin for that date is available at 10:00 AM CT on the next business day, and early resolution does not apply. If the deciding data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. If the condition is not met, there is no Yes or No outcome: all positions are closed out at the price paid to acquire them, with no gain or loss, and transaction fees are not refunded.
A conditional forecast pairs a condition with an outcome, and the outcome is assessed only if the condition is met. The condition is that a specified political party wins majority control of the US Senate in the 2026 general election, and the outcome is whether a specified E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract settles above a set price on a given day.
The United States Congress and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) publish the deciding data. The condition is decided first, solely by the final result of the US Senate Majority product (SENMA), which decides which party wins majority control of the US Senate in the 2026 general election as reported by the United States Congress, and it is met if the party specified in the market question wins that majority. If the condition is met, positions continue automatically and the outcome is decided by the CME daily settlement price of the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract month specified in the market question, on the date specified in the market question: Yes if that settlement price is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when CME's final daily settlement bulletin for that date is available at 10:00 AM CT on the next business day, and early resolution does not apply. If the deciding data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. If the condition is not met, there is no Yes or No outcome: all positions are closed out at the price paid to acquire them, with no gain or loss, and transaction fees are not refunded.
A conditional forecast pairs a condition with an outcome, and the outcome is assessed only if the condition is met. The condition is that a specified political party wins majority control of the US Senate in the 2026 general election, and the outcome is whether a specified E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract settles above a set price on a given day.