As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:17 am ET, Lumina’s “Texas Governor Winner” market prices Gina Hinojosa at 93% and Greg Abbott at 8%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
Resolution follows the results published by Texas's election authority, and the winner is whoever is officially declared to have prevailed under Texas state election law. Where a contest goes to a runoff, only the runoff winner resolves Yes - advancing to one does not. What happens if a candidate stops running depends on what the contract references: a contract on a political party follows that party's official nominee and transfers automatically to a replacement if the nominee withdraws, is disqualified, or stops seeking the office, while a contract on a named individual or on a party's primary winner resolves No in those circumstances. Settlement may occur before certification once major news organizations have consistently called the race, or once all votes are reported and the margin sits outside the statutory recount threshold, in each case only where no recount or legal challenge is outstanding. If the election is cancelled, replaced by a different process, or materially changed so the outcome cannot be determined, the contract resolves No.
About
The Texas state gubernatorial general election decides who serves as Texas's chief executive, the office that heads the state government and its executive agencies. Voters choose among the parties' nominees and any other candidates who qualify for the ballot, and the winner is whoever prevails under Texas state election law.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Texas Governor Winner” market ask?
Texas Governor Winner? The outcomes are Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What are the current odds for “Texas Governor Winner”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:17 am ET, Lumina’s “Texas Governor Winner” market prices Gina Hinojosa at 93% and Greg Abbott at 8%.
How have the odds moved for “Texas Governor Winner”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:17 am ET, Gina Hinojosa is at 93%, up 66 points from the prior trading day’s close.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “Texas Governor Winner” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:17 am ET, open interest is $362K.
When does trading close on “Texas Governor Winner”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Dec 6, 2026, 3:00 pm ET, and payout is projected for Dec 6, 2026, 5:00 pm ET.
How does “Texas Governor Winner” resolve, and from which source?
Resolution follows the results published by Texas's election authority, and the winner is whoever is officially declared to have prevailed under Texas state election law. Where a contest goes to a runoff, only the runoff winner resolves Yes - advancing to one does not. What happens if a candidate stops running depends on what the contract references: a contract on a political party follows that party's official nominee and transfers automatically to a replacement if the nominee withdraws, is disqualified, or stops seeking the office, while a contract on a named individual or on a party's primary winner resolves No in those circumstances. Settlement may occur before certification once major news organizations have consistently called the race, or once all votes are reported and the margin sits outside the statutory recount threshold, in each case only where no recount or legal challenge is outstanding. If the election is cancelled, replaced by a different process, or materially changed so the outcome cannot be determined, the contract resolves No. The resolution source is Texas Secretary of State Elections Division.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Texas Governor Winner”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
