Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
Above -9.5%96%
Above -7.5%95%
Above -5.5%85%
Above -3.5%82%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Above -9.5%
0%96%
Above -7.5%
0%95%
Above -5.5%
0%85%
Above -3.5%
0%82%
Above -1.5%
0%68%
Above 0.5%
0%50%
Above 2.5%
0%38%
Above 4.5%
0%26%
Above 6.5%
0%14%
Above 8.5%
0%7%
Above 10.5%
0%1%
Above 12.5%
0%1%
Above 14.5%
0%1%
Above 16.5%
0%1%
Rules
The deciding value is the preliminary reading of the quarter-over-quarter percentage change in US corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and consumption adjustments, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in Table 9, line 3 of the full release for Q3 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BEA publishes the preliminary reading at 7:30 AM CT, about 60 days after the quarter ends, and the revision BEA publishes a month later does not change the outcome. Early resolution does not apply, and if BEA delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
US corporate profits are the portion of total income earned from current production that is accounted for by US corporations. The event is the quarter-over-quarter percentage change in after-tax profits for Q3 2026.