The outcome is decided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reporting, using the National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories and the NHC's Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The outcome is Yes if at least one hurricane that the NHC reports as Category 4 (maximum sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph) at the time its surface center makes landfall in the United States does so on or before November 30, 2026, and No otherwise. Hurricanes of a higher or lower category at landfall do not qualify, and if a hurricane makes several US landfalls, any landfall at Category 4 counts. The time of landfall, not the time the advisory is published, decides whether it falls within the period. The outcome can resolve Yes early based on the first official NHC advisory confirming a qualifying landfall; otherwise it is determined at 11:59 PM CT on November 30, 2026, and if the data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.

The outcome is decided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reporting, using the National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories and the NHC's Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The outcome is Yes if at least one hurricane that the NHC reports as Category 4 (maximum sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph) at the time its surface center makes landfall in the United States does so on or before November 30, 2026, and No otherwise. Hurricanes of a higher or lower category at landfall do not qualify, and if a hurricane makes several US landfalls, any landfall at Category 4 counts. The time of landfall, not the time the advisory is published, decides whether it falls within the period. The outcome can resolve Yes early based on the first official NHC advisory confirming a qualifying landfall; otherwise it is determined at 11:59 PM CT on November 30, 2026, and if the data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.