Yes65%
No35%
Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 24Oct 2
100%75%50%25%0%
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its public hurricane advisories for the Atlantic, where each storm's advisory history shows whether it reached Category 1 strength or higher. The deciding value is the number of storms that form in the Atlantic and are classified as Category 1 or higher, with sustained winds of at least 64 knots, during 2026, and each storm counts once. The outcome is Yes if that count is at least the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Early resolution applies, so the outcome can resolve Yes as soon as the count reaches that value; otherwise it is determined at 11:59:59 PM CT on December 31, 2026, and if the data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
Tropical cyclones are classified by their maximum sustained wind speed, from tropical storms at the low end to major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The measure is the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic in 2026, counting each storm that reaches Category 1 or higher, with sustained winds of at least 64 knots.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publishes the deciding data in its public hurricane advisories for the Atlantic, where each storm's advisory history shows whether it reached Category 1 strength or higher. The deciding value is the number of storms that form in the Atlantic and are classified as Category 1 or higher, with sustained winds of at least 64 knots, during 2026, and each storm counts once. The outcome is Yes if that count is at least the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. Early resolution applies, so the outcome can resolve Yes as soon as the count reaches that value; otherwise it is determined at 11:59:59 PM CT on December 31, 2026, and if the data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
Tropical cyclones are classified by their maximum sustained wind speed, from tropical storms at the low end to major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The measure is the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic in 2026, counting each storm that reaches Category 1 or higher, with sustained winds of at least 64 knots.