The outcome is decided by the deposit facility rate decision that the European Central Bank (ECB) publishes in its monetary policy decisions press release after the Governing Council meeting in December 2026, where the rate is listed under Key ECB interest rates as the interest rate on the deposit facility, typically at 2:15 PM Central European Time (8:15 AM CT, though this can shift when daylight saving changes do not line up). The change is measured in basis points against the rate in effect immediately before that announcement, and a decision that leaves the rate unchanged counts as no change. The outcome is Yes if the change matches the move specified in the market question, such as a hike of at least a given size, no change, or a cut, and No otherwise. The outcome is final when the decision is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.

The outcome is decided by the deposit facility rate decision that the European Central Bank (ECB) publishes in its monetary policy decisions press release after the Governing Council meeting in December 2026, where the rate is listed under Key ECB interest rates as the interest rate on the deposit facility, typically at 2:15 PM Central European Time (8:15 AM CT, though this can shift when daylight saving changes do not line up). The change is measured in basis points against the rate in effect immediately before that announcement, and a decision that leaves the rate unchanged counts as no change. The outcome is Yes if the change matches the move specified in the market question, such as a hike of at least a given size, no change, or a cut, and No otherwise. The outcome is final when the decision is published, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.