The outcome is decided by the Final Estimate of the quarter-over-quarter euro area GDP growth rate published by Eurostat, taken from the Growth Rates of GDP in Volume table (Euro area row, percentage change compared with previous quarter), typically released on the first Friday of the third month after the quarter ends at 11:00 AM CET (4:00 AM CT, or 5:00 AM CT when CT and CET are offset by daylight saving time). The outcome is Yes if that data shows two consecutive negative quarter-over-quarter readings by the end of Q4 2026, and No otherwise. Only the Final Estimate counts. The outcome can resolve Yes early as soon as the second consecutive negative reading is published; otherwise it is determined when the Final Estimate for Q4 2026 is published, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.

The outcome is decided by the Final Estimate of the quarter-over-quarter euro area GDP growth rate published by Eurostat, taken from the Growth Rates of GDP in Volume table (Euro area row, percentage change compared with previous quarter), typically released on the first Friday of the third month after the quarter ends at 11:00 AM CET (4:00 AM CT, or 5:00 AM CT when CT and CET are offset by daylight saving time). The outcome is Yes if that data shows two consecutive negative quarter-over-quarter readings by the end of Q4 2026, and No otherwise. Only the Final Estimate counts. The outcome can resolve Yes early as soon as the second consecutive negative reading is published; otherwise it is determined when the Final Estimate for Q4 2026 is published, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.