Yes65%
No35%
Sep 14Sep 21Sep 29Oct 6Oct 14
100%75%50%25%0%

The deciding source is Congress.gov, published by the United States Congress. The outcome is Yes if Congress.gov records that an act of Congress has become law and explicitly establishes nationwide legalization of robotaxis, through statutory text that removes prior federal prohibitions, creates affirmative federal authorization, or directs federal agencies to regulate robotaxis in a way that enables lawful nationwide operation. Executive orders, agency regulations, and judicial rulings do not count, and neither do measures that only fund studies, create temporary exceptions, allow state-level action without federal legalization, or partially decriminalize without establishing lawful federal authority. If no qualifying law is enacted by the end of 2026, the outcome is No. Congress.gov typically records enactments by about 7:00 AM CT the morning after chamber sessions adjourn or the President acts on a bill, and early resolution applies, so the outcome can be decided as soon as a qualifying law is enacted. If the Congress.gov record is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
Federal legalization establishes lawful authority for an activity across the US under national law. It requires an act of Congress that becomes law and explicitly establishes nationwide legalization, by removing prior federal prohibitions, creating affirmative federal authorization, or directing federal agencies to regulate the subject so it can operate lawfully nationwide. The event is whether such a law legalizing robotaxis is enacted by the end of 2026.

The deciding source is Congress.gov, published by the United States Congress. The outcome is Yes if Congress.gov records that an act of Congress has become law and explicitly establishes nationwide legalization of robotaxis, through statutory text that removes prior federal prohibitions, creates affirmative federal authorization, or directs federal agencies to regulate robotaxis in a way that enables lawful nationwide operation. Executive orders, agency regulations, and judicial rulings do not count, and neither do measures that only fund studies, create temporary exceptions, allow state-level action without federal legalization, or partially decriminalize without establishing lawful federal authority. If no qualifying law is enacted by the end of 2026, the outcome is No. Congress.gov typically records enactments by about 7:00 AM CT the morning after chamber sessions adjourn or the President acts on a bill, and early resolution applies, so the outcome can be decided as soon as a qualifying law is enacted. If the Congress.gov record is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
Federal legalization establishes lawful authority for an activity across the US under national law. It requires an act of Congress that becomes law and explicitly establishes nationwide legalization, by removing prior federal prohibitions, creating affirmative federal authorization, or directing federal agencies to regulate the subject so it can operate lawfully nationwide. The event is whether such a law legalizing robotaxis is enacted by the end of 2026.