Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The deciding value is the median sales price of new houses sold in the US, published by the US Census Bureau in the New Residential Sales report for October 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported median price is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when the Census Bureau publishes the report at 9:00 AM CT, typically on the 17th business day of the month after October 2026. Early resolution does not apply, and if the Census Bureau delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
The median price of newly built homes is the midpoint of their sale prices. The measure is the median sales price of new homes sold in the US during October 2026, the price at which half of sales were higher and half were lower.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Median New Home Sales Price in October 2026” market ask?
Median New Home Sales Price in October 2026? It lists 9 outcomes, from “>$350k” to “>$430k”, and each one trades as its own Yes/No contract.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Median New Home Sales Price in October 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Nov 25, 2026, 10:00 am ET, and payout is projected for Nov 25, 2026, 12:00 pm ET.
How does “Median New Home Sales Price in October 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The deciding value is the median sales price of new houses sold in the US, published by the US Census Bureau in the New Residential Sales report for October 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported median price is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when the Census Bureau publishes the report at 9:00 AM CT, typically on the 17th business day of the month after October 2026. Early resolution does not apply, and if the Census Bureau delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published. The resolution source is U.S. Census Bureau.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Median New Home Sales Price in October 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
