Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The US Census Bureau publishes the deciding data in its New Residential Sales report, and the deciding value is the month-over-month percentage change in the median sales price of new houses sold in the US for October 2026, as stated in the report's Sales Price section. The outcome is Yes if that change matches the outcome specified in the market question, either the direction of change (an increase, no change or a decrease) or a change above the value specified, and No otherwise. The value becomes final when the Census Bureau publishes that report, typically on the 17th business day of the month at 9:00 AM CT, and early resolution does not apply. If the Census Bureau delays the report, resolution waits until it is published.
About
The median sales price of new houses is the price at which half of the new houses sold in a month went for more and half went for less. The event is the month-over-month change in the median sales price of new houses sold in the US for October 2026.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Percentage Change in US Home Prices in October 2026” market ask?
Percentage Change in US Home Prices in October 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above -10.5%” pays $1 if the result is above -10.5%, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 9 thresholds, from “Above -10.5%” to “Above 1.5%”.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Percentage Change in US Home Prices in October 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Nov 25, 2026, 10:00 am ET, and payout is projected for Nov 25, 2026, 12:00 pm ET.
How does “Percentage Change in US Home Prices in October 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The US Census Bureau publishes the deciding data in its New Residential Sales report, and the deciding value is the month-over-month percentage change in the median sales price of new houses sold in the US for October 2026, as stated in the report's Sales Price section. The outcome is Yes if that change matches the outcome specified in the market question, either the direction of change (an increase, no change or a decrease) or a change above the value specified, and No otherwise. The value becomes final when the Census Bureau publishes that report, typically on the 17th business day of the month at 9:00 AM CT, and early resolution does not apply. If the Census Bureau delays the report, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is US Census Bureau.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Percentage Change in US Home Prices in October 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
