US Recession by the End of Q3 2026?
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The outcome is decided by the third estimate (Final Reading) of quarter-over-quarter real GDP in the Gross Domestic Product release, published at 7:30 AM CT by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The outcome is Yes if that data shows two consecutive negative quarter-over-quarter readings by the end of Q3 2026, and No otherwise. Only the release named here counts. The outcome can resolve Yes early as soon as the second consecutive negative reading is published; otherwise it is determined when that release is published for Q3 2026, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
A recession is a broad and sustained decline in economic activity, and it is commonly identified by consecutive quarters of shrinking output. The measure is whether the US enters a recession by the end of Q3 2026, defined as two or more consecutive quarters in which real GDP contracts.
Questions and Answers
What does the “US Recession by the End of Q3 2026” market ask?
US Recession by the End of Q3 2026? It trades as one Yes/No contract: Yes pays $1 if the answer is yes, and No pays $1 if it is no.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “US Recession by the End of Q3 2026”?
Trading closes on Dec 10, 2026, 11:54 am ET. The outcome resolves on Dec 10, 2026, 8:30 am ET, and payout is projected for Dec 10, 2026, 10:30 am ET.
How does “US Recession by the End of Q3 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The outcome is decided by the third estimate (Final Reading) of quarter-over-quarter real GDP in the Gross Domestic Product release, published at 7:30 AM CT by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The outcome is Yes if that data shows two consecutive negative quarter-over-quarter readings by the end of Q3 2026, and No otherwise. Only the release named here counts. The outcome can resolve Yes early as soon as the second consecutive negative reading is published; otherwise it is determined when that release is published for Q3 2026, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “US Recession by the End of Q3 2026”?
Choose Yes or No and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
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What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
