Layoffs in the US in October 2026?
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the deciding value in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, typically at 9:00 AM CT, in Table 5, "Layoffs and discharges levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted". The value used is the figure under Levels (in thousands) for October 2026 in the row for the US, where the total and industry rows cover the whole US and the four region rows at the bottom of the table cover those regions. The outcome is Yes if that figure is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome becomes final when BLS releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover report covering October 2026, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Layoffs and discharges are involuntary job separations initiated by employers. The outcome is the seasonally adjusted number of layoffs and discharges in the US, in thousands, for October 2026.
Questions and Answers
What does the “Layoffs in the US in October 2026” market ask?
Layoffs in the US in October 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above 1,500” pays $1 if the result is above 1,500, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 7 thresholds, from “Above 1,500” to “Above 1,800”.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
When does trading close on “Layoffs in the US in October 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Dec 1, 2026, 10:00 am ET, and payout is projected for Dec 1, 2026, 12:00 pm ET.
How does “Layoffs in the US in October 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the deciding value in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, typically at 9:00 AM CT, in Table 5, "Layoffs and discharges levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted". The value used is the figure under Levels (in thousands) for October 2026 in the row for the US, where the total and industry rows cover the whole US and the four region rows at the bottom of the table cover those regions. The outcome is Yes if that figure is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The outcome becomes final when BLS releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover report covering October 2026, early resolution does not apply, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published. The resolution source is Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “Layoffs in the US in October 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
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Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
