US Unemployment Rate in November 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, Lumina’s “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026” market prices "Above 4.0%" at 78% and "Above 4.2%" at 10%.
Chart
Outcomes
Rules
The deciding value is the monthly U-3 unemployment rate, total unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force, published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in The Employment Situation report for November 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported rate is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BLS publishes The Employment Situation at 7:30 AM CT, typically on the third Friday after the end of the reference week that includes the 12th of the month. Early resolution does not apply, and if BLS delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published.
About
The US unemployment rate is the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force. The event is that rate for November 2026.
Questions and Answers
What does the “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026” market ask?
US Unemployment Rate in November 2026? Each outcome is a threshold: Yes on “Above 4.0%” pays $1 if the result is above 4.0%, and No pays $1 if it isn’t. The market lists 10 thresholds, from “Above 3.0%” to “Above 4.8%”.
What are the current odds for “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, Lumina’s “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026” market prices "Above 4.0%" at 78% and "Above 4.2%" at 10%.
How have the odds moved for “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, "Above 4.0%" is at 78%, down 9 points from the prior trading day’s close.
Which range is most likely for “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026”?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, the prices put the result above 4.0% but not above 4.2% at 68%, the most likely band on the ladder.
What does the price of "Above 4.0%" mean in the “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, a Yes contract on "Above 4.0%" trades at 78¢. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so 78¢ shows as 78%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How active is the “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026” market?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 9:25 am ET, open interest is $2.4K, and $15 has traded in the current session.
When does trading close on “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026”?
Trading closes and the outcome resolves on Dec 4, 2026, 8:30 am ET, and payout is projected for Dec 4, 2026, 10:30 am ET.
How does “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026” resolve, and from which source?
The deciding value is the monthly U-3 unemployment rate, total unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force, published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in The Employment Situation report for November 2026. The outcome is Yes if the reported rate is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value becomes final when BLS publishes The Employment Situation at 7:30 AM CT, typically on the third Friday after the end of the reference week that includes the 12th of the month. Early resolution does not apply, and if BLS delays the release, resolution waits until the data is published. The resolution source is U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade “US Unemployment Rate in November 2026”?
Pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount in the trade panel on this page. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow this market without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on this page. The market then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
