Questions and Answers
What are housing prediction markets?
Each housing prediction market asks a question about a real-world event, and each of its outcomes trades as a Yes/No contract that settles when the result is known. Lumina lists 11 housing markets on this page.
Which housing markets lead this page?
The page opens with “US Building Permits in October 2026?”, “US Housing Starts in October 2026?” and “Canada New Housing Price Index Change in October 2026?”.
What does a Yes contract pay, and what does its price mean?
Each percentage is a contract’s last traded price. Every contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, so one trading at 62¢ shows as 62%: the market’s implied probability that it happens. It’s what traders are paying, not a poll or a forecast.
How are housing markets resolved?
Each contract settles under its own rules, which name the result it goes by and the date. A contract that’s right pays $1 and one that’s wrong pays $0. The rules are on each market’s page.
What are the fees?
In addition, Lumina charges a commission equal to 0.35% of the trade value each time you buy or sell contracts, charged at the time of execution on top of the ForecastEx transaction fee. The trade value is the contract price multiplied by the number of contracts. For example, if you buy 100 contracts at $0.40, the trade value is $40.00: you pay $1.00 to ForecastEx and $0.14 to Lumina, or $1.14 in total. Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries your account, retains a portion of Lumina’s commission. Lumina receives a rebate equal to one-quarter (25% or $0.0025) of the ForecastEx transaction fee. This rebate is Lumina’s share of the exchange’s transaction fee. It is not a separate or additional charge added on top of what the customer pays. The Fee Disclosure lists every charge.
How do I trade housing markets on Lumina?
Open a market from this page, pick an outcome, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount. Orders route to Interactive Brokers and execute on ForecastEx. Available to US persons only. You must be at least 21, a US resident, and an eligible client of Interactive Brokers LLC, with identity and residency verified. Interactive Brokers determines eligibility.
Can I follow markets without trading?
Yes. Sign in and choose Add to watchlist on any market. It then stays in your Watchlist with its price.
What is Lumina Markets?
Lumina Markets is a prediction market platform and a CFTC-registered introducing broker (NFA ID 0576536), providing access to event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Prediction Market Contracts are listed and traded on ForecastEx, LLC (“ForecastEx”), the CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
